Bi-Weekly Discussion - Is the U.S. Facing an Energy Crisis?

About this event

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join. Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in... \*\*\* *** IS THE U.S. FACING AN ENERGY CRISIS - AND IF SO, WHAT'S THE SOLUTION? INTRODUCTION: This discussion serves as a follow-up to one we had last time entitled "Is There a (Cautious) Case for Climate Optimism" (https://www.meetup.com/philadelphia-political-agnostics/events/315056760/) where we discussed whether or not it's now feasible & desirable to transition to 100% renewable energy thanks to advances in the efficiency of solar panels, wind turbines & lithium-ion batteries. While this would help cut US carbon emissions and insulate the US economy from global oil shocks, some critics are concerned that a rapid shift away from fossil fuels along with increased demand for electricity from data centers, EV charging stations, cryptocurrency mining operations, reshoring of energy-intensive manufacturing (e.g. auto factories, chemical plants, steel mills, semiconductor fabs), and the shift from coal, oil & gas furnaces to electric heat pumps may be leading the U.S. towards a near-term energy crisis. So how concerned should we be, and how can an energy crisis be avoided? To answer this question, we'll review the recent history of energy crises and their causes, and see if this can give us some insight into where we're headed. We'll also analyze how economic & political forces at the international, national, and state levels shape energy policy for better or worse... In the 1st section, we'll briefly review the causes of the post-COVID "global energy crisis" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_effects_of_the_2021%E2%80%932023_global_energy_crisis) that stretched from 2021 to 2023 which was exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We'll then discuss how this crisis and the specter of geopolitical turmoil in the near future (particularly tensions with China) has produced a new push for the U.S. to become "energy independent" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_independence) (i.e. a net exporter of oil & natural gas). However, being a net oil exporter overlooks the fact that the U.S. must still import most of its oil, since the our refinery capacity is limited and the oil we produce via fracking is too "light" (low viscosity) and "sweet" (low sulfur content), whereas our refineries are still designed for the heavier, "sour" oil from the Middle East, Canada & Mexico - and retooling them would cost billions. And while the need for rare earth minerals for many components in our green energy infrastructure is now widely discussed, we'll also see how talk of "energy independence" often overlook the importance of "re-shoring" (or at least "near-shoring" or "friend-shoring") the manufacturing of critical inputs for domestic energy production, transmission & storage (e.g. solar panels, wind turbines, natural gas turbines, transformers, lithium-ion batteries). In the 2nd section, we'll take a look back at the electrical grid failures in California in the summer of 2020 (https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/inline-files/California%E2%80%99s%20Rolling%20Blackouts%20and%20Near%20Blackouts%20in%20August%20and%20September%202020.pdf) and Texas in the winter of 2021 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis), and then discuss the additional strains on the gird mentioned above in the opening paragraph that could potentially overwhelm the U.S. electrical grid. We'll assess whether this could lead to a broader energy crisis in the near future if we don't build a lot more power stations (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_United_States) (whether that's renewables, nuclear, or natural gas) and a more robust grid. As we'll see, most experts suggest building more high-voltage direct current (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current) (HVDC) lines for long-distance transmission tied